Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., is pushing a provision to ban members of Congress and their families from betting on prediction markets tied to politics, policy, or elections.
The measure would be added to a broader bill already set for a House vote, which seeks to stop lawmakers from buying new individual stocks outside of dividend reinvestments. That bill has backing from House Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump. GOP lawmakers have committed to bringing the legislation to the House floor for a vote, signaling strong Republican support for tightening financial restrictions on congressional members.
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Steil chairs the committee overseeing House ethics rules, giving him direct influence over the drafting and enforcement of such provisions. His proposal would require lawmakers who bet on events where they have insider knowledge to pay a penalty equal to $2,000 or 10% of the transaction’s value—whichever is higher—plus forfeit any profits. The penalty structure ensures that even smaller bets carry meaningful financial consequences, while larger transactions face proportional fines.
Bets on non-political events, like sports, would still be allowed. He told journalists that wagering on the Super Bowl does not pose the same ethical concerns as political prediction markets, as sports betting lacks the same potential for insider influence over outcomes. Steil emphasized that not all prediction markets present conflicts of interest, distinguishing between speculative entertainment and wagers that could exploit sensitive legislative or electoral information.
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The move follows growing scrutiny of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which let users bet on election outcomes and policy decisions. These platforms have gained attention for enabling real-money trading on political events, raising questions about whether lawmakers with nonpublic information could unfairly profit. The Senate already approved a rule this year barring its members and staff from such bets, reflecting bipartisan concern over the ethical risks in the upper chamber.
For the House bill to become law, it would need Senate approval. This is difficult because the broader stock-trading ban lacks Democratic support due to its focus only on lawmakers and not the executive branch. Democrats have argued that any restrictions should apply equally to high-ranking officials in the administration, creating a partisan divide that complicates passage. The House version’s narrower scope makes it less likely to clear the Senate unless negotiators expand its reach or strike a compromise.
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His office shared the draft text with reporters ahead of its formal introduction, allowing for early review and public discussion of the proposed penalties and exemptions. The measure was first outlined to CNBC, which reported on its details prior to the official rollout.
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