World Bank says AI benefits outweigh risks

The World Bank’s latest World Development Report 2026, titled The Promise of Artificial Intelligence, argues that developing economies stand to gain more from AI than they risk losing.

AI’s upside for low‑ and middle‑income countries

According to the study, less than 10% of jobs in developing nations are vulnerable to full automation, compared with over a third in high‑income economies. About 16.2% of jobs in low‑ and middle‑income countries could be “complemented by AI,” meaning the technology would enhance rather than replace work.

Indermit Gill, senior vice president and chief economist at the World Bank Group, writes that AI can “radically speed up the pace of transformation,” putting expert knowledge within reach of millions instead of a small elite. One in six jobs in these economies could be improved by AI, a figure only slightly lower than the share in richer nations.

In practice, the analysis highlights how AI could compress a century‑long development trajectory into a decade, offering a “major opportunity for developing countries to catch up with the living standards in wealthier countries.” Even under a worst‑case scenario, growth rates would rise above the dismal averages of the early 2020s.

Small businesses and public sector gains

Small enterprises dominate many developing markets; nearly 90% of workers in lower‑middle‑income nations are employed by firms with fewer than ten staff, and more than half are self‑employed. It can immediately augment tools such as messaging apps, business software, and social media, helping these firms reduce transaction costs and boost productivity.

Public‑sector examples include Kenya’s judiciary, which uses AI to assign more than 10,000 cases each year to over 1,500 mediators, easing a large backlog.

These instances illustrate a broader trend: AI solutions that fit local contexts—small, targeted applications built for low‑resource settings—appear to be the most promising path forward.

For many people on the ground, the potential shift is tangible. A shop owner who previously relied on handwritten inventory could soon use a simple AI‑driven app to predict stock needs, freeing time for customer service rather than bookkeeping. This kind of incremental improvement may be more realistic than sweeping automation.

AI can change lives.

Risks and structural challenges

The document does not ignore the downsides. It warns that the most advanced AI models, the chips they run on, and the data centers powering them are controlled by a handful of companies in a few economies. This concentration creates dependency risks and may limit the relevance of AI tools for developing regions.

To mitigate these issues, governments are urged to invest in reliable power, broadband access, and robust education systems. Basic skills—literacy, numeracy, reasoning, digital competence, and teamwork—are essential foundations for leveraging AI.

Young innovators across the continent are already testing AI‑driven platforms that help farmers optimize yields, a movement highlighted in a recent profile of emerging talent.