A very strong El Niño is developing in the Pacific, with forecasts indicating it may become one of the most intense since 1950. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology stated models show sea surface temperatures could reach levels among the highest observed since 1950, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather worldwide.
The Southern Oscillation Index, a key measure of El Niño’s strength, dropped to -29.1 in July—its lowest point in four decades. Values below -7 for an extended period usually confirm an El Niño event. The index measures air pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, revealing large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific during El Niño and La Niña episodes.
Drought and floods expected to hit Africa hardest
Southern Africa and parts of the Sahel face significant risks, as outlined in an analysis by Oxford Economics Africa. The area confronts two threats: diminished rainfall in some regions and severe flooding in others. The 2026/2027 El Niño is predicted to bring “heat and drought to some areas and extreme flooding to others.”
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Recent abundant harvests in some areas may provide a degree of resilience, but the overall economic and humanitarian impacts could be severe. A “very strong” El Niño means that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific regions are more than 2°C above average, weakening or even reversing easterly trade winds. El Niños are known to increase rainfall in East Africa, causing flooding, and diminish rainfall in Southern Africa and the Sahel region, causing drought.
The World Meteorological Organization predicts that heightened temperatures may be increased further by the likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, intensifying the dry season in the Sahel and Southern Africa. Coming at a time of already heightened global energy and fertiliser prices, pressure on the agricultural sector could trigger higher food import prices and rising demands for subsidies and disaster relief. Maize production fell by more than 50% in some countries during the 2023/24 El Niño, leading to several national disasters being declared. “Near-term economic growth prospects” in the Sahel, Southern, and East Africa are expected to be weakened, as the El Niño’s effect on rainfall is “likely to weigh on agricultural growth, water supply, and power generation.”
Predictions about its duration vary. Some models suggest it may continue into early 2027, extending its impact.
Global ripple effects beyond Africa
The effects will extend far beyond Africa. El Niño’s reach spans the globe, usually bringing wetter conditions to the southern U.S. and drier weather to Southeast Asia.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring the Pacific. The Bureau of Meteorology noted the current trend suggests this El Niño could match the intensity of previous strong events. Governments and aid groups are taking action. Some African nations are pre-positioning emergency supplies in flood-prone zones, though funding shortages remain an obstacle.
The extent of the damage will depend on interactions between climate patterns and existing economic conditions. The coming months will challenge communities already under strain.
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