Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked an idea rooted in ancient Greek history during his White House meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on September 24, saying that the “Thucydides Trap can be overcome”, according to Bloomberg. The reference came as Xi called for the US and China to keep their competition “within bounds” and urged the two countries’ militaries to maintain regular dialogue and improve mechanisms for crisis communication and prevention, Bloomberg reported.
The Origins of a Historical Warning
The Thucydides Trap describes the heightened risk of conflict when an emerging power challenges an established one. The concept draws on Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. Thucydides attributed the conflict to the rise of Athens and the fear that this generated in Sparta.
Allison subsequently applied the historical idea to modern great-power competition. His Harvard Thucydides’s Trap project examined 16 cases over the past 500 years in which a rising power threatened to displace an established power. According to his research, 12 of those cases ended in war.
Xi’s Diplomatic Message in Washington
Xi had referred to the same idea during his meeting with Trump in Beijing in May, when he asked whether the two countries could overcome the trap and build a different kind of relationship. His latest remarks in Washington were more direct: the trap, he said, can be overcome.
What is Thucydides Trap?
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Why the Analogy Resonates Now
The timing of Xi’s remarks reflects ongoing competition across trade, artificial intelligence, and technology. Taiwan also remains a major point of disagreement between Washington and Beijing.
Scholars have questioned Allison’s case selection and methodology, arguing that some historical examples do not fit the framework neatly and that the small sample size makes it difficult to draw broad conclusions.
The Practical Challenge Ahead
Xi’s reference came alongside a call for greater communication between Washington and Beijing. He said the two countries should strengthen communication, better understand each other, seek common ground while managing differences, and maintain regular military dialogue. He also argued that the two sides should avoid confrontation, Bloomberg reported.
Allison’s work brought renewed attention to the risks of strategic competition.
Looking Beyond Inevitability
Xi has discussed the Thucydides Trap for years and has previously argued that it is not an unavoidable law of history. His latest comments return to that argument: the outcome of a US-China power transition is shaped by decisions made by both governments rather than predetermined by history.
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